Mark Davis' Blog
November 18, 2009
SARAH'S RETURN
With Sarah Palin back in the front of our minds as she launches the “Going Rogue” book tour, I am spending the week examining the reactions of those paying the closest attention: her most ardent fans and her harshest critics.Both have been whipped into maximum froth by the release of the book, which has made headlines with its detail of Palin’s criticism of how the McCain campaign navigated her through the 2008 campaign.
Her admirers will be newly annoyed by a McCain campaign that refused to “let Sarah be Sarah.” Her detractors will view the handlers as tortured souls burdened with the impossible task of trying to win with a running mate who was half diva, half idiot.
So who’s right? Many of the people who made “Going Rogue” a bestseller with pre-orders before it even hit the bookstores will tell you that we have a Margaret Thatcher starter kit if she is simply left to her instincts. They are eager to see her run for President in 2012.
But her enemies insist they too would love to see her run, since it would guarantee a slam-dunk Barack Obama re-election. They predict an embarrassment for her in a hopeless matchup against a far more articulate and accomplished opponent.
But as the actual accomplishments of Obama repel increasing numbers of Americans who actually voted for him, the once-dead Republican brand is on the rise. Palin’s return is accompanied by the return of the question of whether she is the best standard-bearer for that brand in 2012.
As a member of a small group-- an admirer of Palin’s actually willing to admit to her shortcomings-- I would suggest that the opening days of her coming-back-out party have been beneficial for her.
Her TV appearances show that she too recognizes the moments which did not help her in 2008, which is the first step in getting better on the campaign trail. And the book itself reveals the abject failure of the McCain campaign to take advantage of the attributes she brought to the table from the moment she was announced as the vice-presidential candidate.
While absorbing the story of this compelling woman, her ascent and her possible future, readers should notice one of the best examples of a basic political truth revealed far too infrequently: you cannot win at the highest levels of politics without good handlers, and bad handlers can kill you.
And from a timid message to the failure to address the negative Obama aspects that the nation has now harshly realized, the McCain campaign was shot through from top to bottom with bad handlers.
This does not mean that’s why the McCain/Palin ticket lost. With the economy tanking, voters were even more eager for change than they ordinarily are after a two-term presidency.
After the Palin announcement, I was often asked: do I think she’s ready for the presidency? My answer then: not really. But I considered her worthy of the vice presidency, where four years as McCain’s understudy would have seasoned her superbly to become the 45th President of the United States.
Now her path to that job is harder. When the crowded Republican race to end the Obama era kicks off-- and that will be the morning after the 2010 elections-- her fate will be tied to perceptions of whether she can win from a private sector springboard filled with book tour stops and campaign events for off-year GOP candidates.
I believe she will excel at both, placing her squarely amid the leaders of 2012 aspirants. But will she outperform Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, should they return with appreciable supporter bases? Will she shine as brightly as other new possibilities, from Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal to Congressmen Mike Pence and Paul Ryan?
Only time will tell. But if this is the beginning of a year filled with evidence of her passion and clarity-- and largely free of deer-in-the-headlights moments-- she will land squarely where her fans want her and where her critics say they want her-- in a position to argue that she should be Barack Obama’s successor.
Then her fans will get a chance to see if she can rise to that mighty occasion. If she can, those who have mocked her with such glee will eat those words, washed down with a large gulp of an appropriate adage: Be careful what you wish for.
posted by Mark Davis, WBAP on 11/18/2009 11:52:40 AM
