Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have steadily improved since last month, according to FiveThirtyEight’s probability calculations.
The political forecasting website, which is owned by ABC News, has regularly released the odds for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election. Trump started with a higher chance of winning at 53% to Harris’ 47% at the end of July, just after Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket.
Harris saw a large boost after officially becoming the Democrat nominee for president, reaching a high of 64% probability to win in September, but the likelihood of her winning has fallen steadily since then while Trump’s has continuously increased. Harris went from a 64% chance in September to a 55% chance just one week later, and that chance later fell to 52% earlier this week.
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