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Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran. Shortly ahead of a fragile ceasefire agreement earlier this week, a new group of accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed trades betting on a halt in fighting for April 7. The trades once again put the spotlight on a murky — and growing — world of speculative, 24/7 transactions now filling the internet. The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years. And because these wagers are categorized differently than traditional forms of gambling, tensions about government oversight have erupted.
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