Dallas-based Oncor Electric Delivery expects its next five-year construction program to grow roughly 20% as requests for data-center power continue to mount, raising a central question for Texas electricity customers: Who pays for infrastructure if ambitious projects never materialize?

Oncor disclosed that its transmission queue contained about 293 gigawatts of data-center requests as of September 30. That figure exceeds Texas’ record 91.1-gigawatt summer electricity peak more than threefold. But connection requests are not operating facilities, firm power commitments, or a forecast that all the projects will proceed.

The utility’s financial plans are already growing. Oncor expects to spend approximately $9 billion on capital projects in 2026, its largest annual program, after spending $6.3 billion through September. The company now projects an approximately 20% increase for its 2027–2031 base capital plan, although it has not finalized that forecast.

The Cost Of Projects That Never Open

The company previously announced a $47.5 billion base capital plan for 2026–2030. An increase of roughly 20% against that figure would imply about $57 billion over the next five-year period, but Oncor has not formally adopted that amount, and the years covered differ.

The risk extends beyond the headline spending figure.

Oncor said it held approximately $6 billion in collateral from customers seeking generation or large commercial and industrial connections at the end of September. The financial security aims to reduce the risk that existing ratepayers absorb costs after developers cancel projects for which Oncor has already begun infrastructure work.

Not all $6 billion covers data centers. Oncor identified approximately $2 billion in collateral associated with projects in ERCOT’s initial large-load review, known as Batch Zero. The utility has not claimed that collateral eliminates every potential ratepayer expense.

Oncor also disclosed that new base rates effective June 1 contributed to its quarterly earnings increase. It reported $572 million in third-quarter net income, up from $380 million a year earlier. Those existing rate changes do not establish that the proposed data-center connections have increased anyone’s bill.

Regulators Separate Requests From Real Demand

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas and state regulators approved Batch Zero in June to study major electricity users seeking at least 75 megawatts together, rather than reviewing each project independently. The process examines available grid capacity and the transmission improvements that new customers could require.

Oncor said ERCOT has conditionally classified roughly 24 gigawatts of its submitted customer load as base load, including 10 gigawatts already receiving electricity, and another 21 gigawatts as studied load. Those classifications represent a narrower group than the entire 293-gigawatt data-center request queue.

ERCOT still must complete its audit of applicants’ qualifications and community effects. Oncor expects that review in December and a final transmission plan reflecting Batch Zero in fall 2027. Crucially, Oncor has excluded the Batch Zero projects from its current base capital plan.

North Texas Already Sees The Trade-Offs

Infrastructure needs extend beyond data centers. Oncor said its work includes service for an expected 18 megawatts of additional demand from DFW Airport terminal expansions and new two-way electrical feeds for hospitals in Fort Worth’s Medical Innovation District.

But major transmission projects also bring substantial costs and land-use disputes. As The Dallas Express previously covered, Texas regulators approved 424.2 miles of Oncor high-voltage lines in August, with combined estimated costs approaching $3.95 billion. Landowners questioned the routes, while state regulators cited reliability needs. Those estimates do not specify a monthly household bill impact.

The Dallas Express also documented Keller’s recent agreement concerning a proposed Westlake data-center campus. Those stories illustrate both the pressure to connect new commercial demand and the costs communities seek to control.

Oncor’s latest disclosure leaves the most consequential decisions ahead: which requests survive ERCOT’s scrutiny, how much construction those projects actually require, and how regulators distribute the resulting costs.

Provided by Dallas Express