A discarded section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to collide with the moon early Wednesday, creating a sizable crater and providing scientists with a rare chance to study the effects of a known impact on the lunar surface.
Researchers predict the rocket’s upper stage will strike the moon at approximately 2:35 a.m. ET at speeds exceeding 5,000 mph, near the Einstein Crater on the moon’s northwestern near side.
The impact is unintentional and stems from a SpaceX mission launched in January 2025 that carried two private lunar landers and scientific payloads toward the moon.
Rocket Stage Could Leave Crater Up to 90 Feet Wide
According to orbital tracking expert Bill Gray, the discarded rocket stage — roughly the size of a five-story building — is expected to hit the moon at about 5,400 mph (8,700 kph), or roughly seven times the speed of sound.
Gray estimates the impact will create a crater at least 17 meters (56 feet) in diameter, while other researchers estimate it could reach nearly 90 feet (27 meters) across and about 16 feet (5 meters) deep.
The collision is expected to release energy roughly equivalent to three tons of TNT.
Scientists do not expect the brief impact flash to be visible from Earth, but the resulting plume of dust and debris could rise several miles above the lunar surface and remain visible through sensitive telescopes for several minutes.
NASA Spacecraft Will Document Before-and-After Images
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) has already begun preparations to observe the impact site.
Brent Garry, project scientist for LRO at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said the spacecraft will photograph the area before and after the collision to identify changes on the lunar surface.
“After the impact we might have a little bit more knowledge of where it is,” Garry said during a June discussion hosted by NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute, per NPR. “We can do some additional targeting about a week after the impact.”
South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter is also expected to collect observations. Researchers say the spacecraft will pass within a few kilometers of the rocket stage approximately two minutes before impact.
Mission Launched Two Private Lunar Landers
The Falcon 9 upper stage launched on January 15, 2025, carrying two commercial lunar landers.
One spacecraft, Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, became the first privately built lunar lander to complete a fully successful moon landing. The second spacecraft, developed by Japan-based ispace, ultimately crashed during its landing attempt.
After completing its mission, the Falcon 9 upper stage remained in a chaotic orbit that eventually placed it on a collision course with the moon.
SpaceX did not intend for the rocket stage to strike the lunar surface, according to reports. Space experts noted the impact likely could have been avoided had the stage been directed into a stable orbit around the sun after completing its mission.
Scientists See Valuable Research Opportunity
Although accidental, researchers say the impact presents a valuable scientific opportunity because the rocket’s size, speed and trajectory are well understood.
Unlike natural meteoroid strikes, the known conditions allow scientists to compare predicted and actual crater formation and debris patterns.
“Part of the reason for our interest in this event is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts,” Los Alamos National Laboratory researcher Benjamin Fernando said, per the Associated Press.
Fernando encouraged both professional and experienced amateur astronomers with appropriate equipment to attempt observations.
“This is not something that you’re going to see by pointing a pair of binoculars at the moon,” he said during a NASA discussion, but observers with larger telescopes may be able to detect the debris plume, NPR reported.
Gray similarly noted that researchers are unsure exactly what will be visible.
“As with much in science, the answer is ‘we don’t know; let’s find out,’” he wrote on his website, per NPR.
Growing Lunar Activity Raises Debris Questions
The upcoming collision marks only the second known accidental rocket impact on the moon.
In 2022, a Chinese rocket stage struck the moon’s far side, creating a pair of craters.
Scientists say the latest event underscores the growing need for better management of spacecraft after their missions conclude as activity around the moon increases.
NASA intentionally crashed spacecraft into the moon during the Apollo era to conduct seismic experiments and later directed its LCROSS mission into a permanently shadowed crater in 2009 to search for water ice.
With NASA’s Artemis program, commercial companies and China all planning expanded lunar operations in the coming years, researchers say preventing abandoned rocket stages from becoming future hazards will become increasingly important.
“This impact will not be a problem,” retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell said, per AP. “But in a future where there are long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts would be an issue, and we need not leave rocket stages in chaotic orbits of this kind.”
Provided by Dallas Express
