Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted 11 California congressional races for 2026 toward the Democratic Party, marking a major rebalancing of the political map after voters Tuesday passed Proposition 50, allowing lawmakers to redraw district lines ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
The new measure, approved by voters in the Golden State, temporarily suspends California’s independent redistricting commission and hands lawmakers control of the process — a decision expected to strengthen Democrats’ position in several key districts, according to a report from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics on Wednesday.
The redistricting shifts put California Democratic incumbents Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Dave Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitesides in a stronger position for reelection, the forecast states.
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